Electric Vehicles Future Trends in Germany: Forecast and Regional Distribution in Hamburg

Inhalt:
The European Union has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Meeting these targets will necessitate a significant increase in electric vehicle (EV) fleets, which are crucial for reducing emissions from road passenger transport. However, this surge in EV demand poses a substantial challenge for many countries, including Germany, which must prepare to install adequate charging infrastructure and ensure satisfactory charging services in the future. In recent years, Hamburg, for example, has seen a notable increase in the number of electric vehicles, accompanied by the installation of numerous charging stations to facilitate their use. Given the widespread consensus on the imminent transformation of the electric vehicle landscape, it is essential to conduct predictive studies to understand future developments. Methodological innovations and long-term outlooks are needed to assess the implications of ambitious policy goals, such as achieving full electrification of vehicles and meeting greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Therefore, the following paper aims to address the research question: What are the future prospects for electric vehicles in Germany, particularly in Hamburg, up to 2050, and what is their distribution by postal codes and districts, up to 2030?