Research on forecast of battery electric vehicle’s ownership in seven regions of China based on BASS diffusion model

Inhalt:
The vigorous development of electric vehicle industry is of great significance to the macro-adjustment of automobile industry structure, the promotion of carbon emission reduction in the transportation field and the consumption of new energy power. This paper adopts the battery electric vehicle data of traffic administration, for the Northeast, the Northwest, the Southwest, the Central, the North, the South, the East, which are seven administrative geographical areas of China, to build regional battery electric vehicle’s ownership model based on BASS diffusion model, and produce the regional parameter fitting results, curve fitting results and ownership changes, respectively. After fitting the BASS model using a general fitting optimization algorithm without any given parameters, the results show that the growth curve of battery electric vehicles in each region is basically S-shaped, but the growth rate, growth threshold and inflection point in different regions are greatly different. With the development policy of electric vehicles basically unchanged, the number of battery electric vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2030, among which the number of that in East China and South China will reach the peak, while the number in Northeast China and North China is still in the initial stage of growth.