Medium and long-term power load forecasting based on an improved grey forecasting model

Inhalt:
Medium and long-term load forecasting is the main basis for power system planning, which is of practical significance to the planning, operation and maintenance of the power grid. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors, the prediction accuracy of medium and long-term power load forecasting is not high. To address this problem, this paper establishes an improved grey prediction model based on the combination of equal-dimensional new information (EIM) and Fourier residual correction (FRC). Firstly, from the basic principles and implementation methods of the traditional grey forecasting model, an improved grey model of EIM and an improved grey model of FRC are proposed. The basic principles, implementation methods and scope of application scope of the improved model are introduced in detail. Finally, the maximum load data of a certain city for each year from 2011 to 2020 is selected for verification. Compared with the traditional grey model, the accuracy of the prediction results is increased by 2.53%, which effectively proves the effectiveness and accuracy of the improved method.