Analysis and Prediction of Marine Plastic Pollution

Abstract:
Marine plastic pollution analysis and prediction targets to analyze the levels of plastic particles in the ocean in recent years and predict future changes well enough. It also avoids the biological intake of too many plastic molecules, which can lead to the destruction of ecosystems and human health by the food chain. Great predictions can contribute to addressing this major global environmental problem in a more rational way. However, current academic data collection on ocean plastic pollution may be saturated. This paper analyzes ocean plastic pollution and predicts the seriousness and danger of plastic pollution for decades. First, we eliminate the useless data to increase the accuracy of the prediction result. Then, polynomial regression, composite function fitting, and Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are used for reasonable presumptions. Finally, the conclusions drawn are compared with the results fitted by similar methods of others. The experimental results illustrate the best prediction of the development of the seriousness of ocean plastic pollution is the quintic function, which shows that the number of plastics in the ocean will be increasing explosively. The results also show that the accumulated amount of macroplastics would likely increase by around 50% in the next 10 years if the tendency of increasing remains unchanged.