Population projections in 2030 based on the optimal forecast combination model

Abstract:
In recent years, China's population development has many new characteristics, which affect the growth of China's population. This paper studies the national population census. Based on the discussion and research of grey prediction model, ARIMA prediction model and Total Fertility Rate (Total Fertility Rate) model, the modeling and prediction of China's Total population in 2030 are carried out. It is predicted that the total population of China in 2030 will be 1.4811 billion. Based on the above three prediction models and exponential smoothing model, the data prediction model of optimal prediction combination is proposed. The optimal prediction combination formula is established, and then the data of the proportion of male population and urban population in China from 2021 to 2030 are predicted. The prediction shows that by 2030, the proportion of male population in China is 0.5115, and the proportion of urban population in China is 75.923.