Prediction and Analysis of China's Future Population Development Trend

Abstract:
Changes in population are related to the future of a country. China is the most populous country in the world. In the past three decades, μ country's population policy has made extraordinary achievements in controlling the population. With the development of society and economy, changes in fertility concepts and the emergence of such phenomena as population aging, scientifically understanding the changing laws of population numbers and establishing population models to accurately predict population numbers will help to adjust population policies to better adapt to social and economic development. This paper studies the mathematical model of population forecasting. First, a population index model and a logistic model were established to predict the national population data in 2030. The fitting results showed that the logistic model was more accurate. Secondly, the SPSS time series model is used to predict the male population and urban population data in 2030.