Probabilistic Forecasting for photovoltaic power generation based on Bayes Ridge regression

Abstract:
With the large-scale integration of new energy sources such as photovoltaics, the uncertainty of their output has brought more significant challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Therefore, this paper proposes a photovoltaic prediction method based on Bayesian ridge regression (BRR) to solve this problem. This method can achieve the prediction of photovoltaic output through probabilistic analysis. At the same time, it provides data support for power system optimal dispatch based on uncertainty modeling.