Broadband forecasting models for content services

Abstract:
This paper addresses the evolution of new and enhanced broadband services based on a top down approach. The idea is to identify future potentials for spending on telecommunications, especially in the residential sector which is the dominating part of the broadband market today. Household spending data for a sample of Western European countries has been collected, segmented and analysed, based on the United Nations COICOP classification. Parts of household spending on categories like entertainment, social and cultural activities are expected to be activated, in the long run, by the usage of broadband services, becoming a source of revenues for service and network providers. These new broadband services generate more traffic in the NGN than traditional browsing and surfing. Substantial additional traffic will also be generated by new usages of various services, not only by substitution effects. A framework for forecasting future telecommunication usage and revenues is described and illustrated with concrete examples.