A new method to assess the probability of lightning causing wildfires

Conference: ICLP 2024 - 37th International Conference on Lightning Protection
09/01/2024 - 09/07/2024 at Dresden, Germany

Proceedings: ICLP Germany 2024

Pages: 6Language: englishTyp: PDF

Authors:
Moris, Jose V.; Ascoli, Davide; Hunt, Hugh G. P.

Abstract:
This paper describes a method to calculate a new metric that evaluates the probability of lightning events causing wild-fires. The probability metric (Pm) is the product of a spatial (Ps) and a temporal (Pt) probability. While Ps assesses the probability of a lightning stroke having attached to a location within an area surrounding the fire discovery point, Pt as-sess the probability of a lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW) reaching a certain holdover time (i.e., the time between light-ning-induced fire ignition and fire detection). Pm can be used to select the most likely ignition source of LIWs.