Influence of various weather forecast elements on the feed-in prediction of photovoltaic systems

Abstract:
Various concepts for grid congestion management are currently investigated and developed. This includes, for example, preventive smart grid systems and local flexibility markets. To realize those concepts, a grid state forecast is mandatory, which reliably predicts critical grid states. Such a grid state forecast was developed as part of a research project and validated in a field test. During the test time, various weather forecast elements, such as cloud cover and global radiation, were obtained from a weather forecast service provider. Based on the collected data from the field test, the influence of the forecast errors of the weather elements on the grid state forecast quality were evaluated and the results will be pre-sented in this paper. In addition, an approach will be presented that allows the reaction on weather forecast errors and minimizes their influence on the quality of the current and voltage forecasts.