Regional Spatial Distribution of Electric Vehicles – A Data-Driven Approach for Distribution Grid Impact Case Studies

Abstract:
The importance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for private mobility will increase significally within the coming years. This development will affect many areas of social life–from the mobility sector over spatial and urban planning to power systems. In particular, the associated demand for electric charging points, their connection to the distribution grid and the provision of consumed energy requires appropriate consideration of electric vehicles (EVs) by distribution grid operators already today. In this paper, a data-driven approach to forecast EV purchases is presented. It has been developed within the EFRE-funded research project NOVAgent and allows for prediction of cross-domain influences of temporal and spatial deployment of EVs. This contribution describes the model and its possible application as scenario generator for distribution grid planning within a sample scenario and concludes with a detailed analysis of the results.