Development Approach for Short-term Forecasting of Reactive Power at the Interface Distribution and Transmission Grid

Abstract:
Within the scope of discussed approaches to cross-voltage level system control, the short-term forecast of grid-related parameters (e.g. reactive power) is of elementary importance. This work presents a complete methodology for short-term prediction of reactive power behaviour of individual substations and grid interconnection points. An application designed for this purpose and its functional range are presented within an exemplary reactive power forecast for a real 110 kV grid. The development approach and the applied prediction method of a Generalized Additive Model show promising results especially for a not highly fluctuating reactive power behaviour of substations. In order to be able to forecast also highly fluctuating feeders correctly, a further optimization of the parameterization of the used models as well as the use of further and more accurate data is to be aspired.