On Robustness Regarding Modeling Errors in Predictive Energy Management Systems for Multi-Carrier Energy Grids

Abstract:
In this paper, a case study about robustness regarding modeling errors in predictive Energy Management Systems (EMS) is presented. The predictive EMS was developed for the Multi-Carrier Energy System (MCES) of the model region Kirchheimbolanden in Rhineland-Palatinate. The goal of the EMS is to minimize the exchange of electric energy between the distribution and the transmission grid to maximize the local use of renewables. To achieve this goal, storage capacities are provided by coupling the electric, heat and gas domain. For the EMS a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach is used. In state of the art literature, the model within the MPC is used as simulation model as well. In a real system environment, the model for the MPC and the real system can diverge due to modeling errors and other uncertainties which leads to worse performance of the EMS. The results show the importance of an accurate system model in MPC-based EMS. With modeling errors of more than 5 %, the cost function is increasing rapidly, with errors around 20 %, the optimization problems can get infeasible and the control scheme is not robust any more.