Comparison of 4 Reliability Prediction Approaches for realistic failure rates of electronic parts required for Safety & Reliability Analysis

Abstract:
Four modern approaches for reliability prediction of electronic parts are compared with the aim to predict realistic failure rates for electronic parts. A modified Quality Factor/Reliability Growth Factor approach to MIL-HDBK-217FN2 models is compared to predictions performed by FIDES (2004), 217plus (2006) and SN29500 (Siemens 2000-2005). Whereas the modern standards FIDES and 217plus evaluate the detailed operating profile of the equipment for one calendar year and consequently provide failure rates per million calendar hours, modified MIL-HDBK-217FN2 and SN29500 provide failure rates per million operating hours. To cope for this difference a specific mission profile of electronics operated in an airborne inhabited cargo environment has been used for FIDES and 217plus. Procedure is among others demonstrated on the prediction of realistic failure rates for modern complex FPGAs being operated in safety critical applications and facing a severe military environment.